Victoria
16 days until Victorians vote on Saturday 28 November 2026.
Across the latest poll from each of 7 pollsters, the Coalition averages 31.4% of the primary vote, Labor 22.4%, One Nation 20.7% and the Greens 14.4%. On two-party-preferred the Coalition leads 55.6 to 44.4 (5 polls), a 10.6-point swing to the Coalition since 2022.
Applied uniformly to the 2022 pendulum, that swing points to a Coalition majority (60 seats, 45 needed). Treat this as the classic two-party read only: it cannot see One Nation winning seats.
The Roy Morgan MRP (March 2026 - September 2026), which models seats one by one, projects Coalition 62, Labor 40, One Nation 11 and Greens 6: a majority.
Preferred premier (RedBridge/Accent, 3–10 Nov 2026): Wilson 29%, Carroll 18%, Pickering 11%.
One Nation led Victorian search interest in the week to 10 November, averaging 59.1 on Google's 0-100 scale, 5.6 times the next party (the Liberals). That is 67% of all search interest across the parties tracked.
Among the leaders, search interest ran Wilson 70%, Carroll 21%, Pickering 8%, Sandell 1% of the combined total this week.
Searches for the Greens jumped to 6 on 29 October, 7.0 times the previous week's average. Coverage around that day: “Victorian Greens senator confronts man over 'deeply offensive' comment” (SMH.com.au).
National
One Nation led national search interest in the week to 10 November, averaging 28.3 on Google's 0-100 scale, 4.3 times the next party (Labor). That is 64% of all search interest across the parties tracked.
The Liberals rose the most on the previous week, up 1.4 points (+38%); One Nation fell furthest, down 1.3 points (-4%).
Fastest-rising searches alongside One Nation: “mike newman one nation”, “one nation 26 countries”, “one nation ai ad”.
Method
Search interest. Daily Google Trends interest for each party's topic entity (not a single keyword), for Australia and for Victoria, over the last 90 days. Google scales each series 0–100 against the busiest day in the window, so values compare parties within a snapshot, not across days. Today's partial day is excluded. Interest measures attention, which can be positive or negative. It is not support.
Spikes. A day counts as a spike when a party's interest is at least twice its trailing 7-day average and at least 3 points above it. Back-to-back spike days collapse to the peak. Each spike is matched to headlines collected from Google News within a day either side.
Polls. Published Victorian voting-intention polls are read each day from the public record on Wikipedia, which links every figure to its original report. The average uses the latest poll from each pollster in the last 30 days, weighted equally. The two-party average only uses polls that publish a Coalition–Labor figure.
Seat model. The swing is Labor's 2022 two-party vote (55.0%) minus the poll average. It is applied evenly to every seat that was a Labor–Coalition contest in 2022, using the published pre-election pendulum. Seats contested against the Greens or independents are held constant. This is a transparent reference point, not a forecast; the published MRP is shown beside it because One Nation's vote breaks the two-party assumptions.
Briefing. These paragraphs are assembled from the computed figures by fixed rules. No language model writes or edits them.
Code and data. Every snapshot is committed to the project repository, so any figure on this site can be traced to its source file.