One Nation
#1
59.1/100
Victorian state election · Saturday 28 November 2026
The Coalition in front. One Nation in the mix.
Polls average 55.6–44.4 two-party preferred, a 10.6-point swing to the Coalition since 2022. With One Nation on 21% of the primary vote, the classic pendulum and seat-by-seat modelling tell very different stories. Explore both below.
16days
--hours
--mins
--secs
Two-party preferred
55.6–44.4
Coalition v Labor · average of 5 polls
Swing since 2022
10.6 pts
to the Coalition · Labor won 55.0–45.0
Uniform swing
60·25·3
Coalition · Labor · Greens seats, 45 to govern
Seat-by-seat MRP
62·40·11
Coalition · Labor · One Nation · Roy Morgan, March 2026 - September 2026
The polls
Where the vote sits
Average of the latest poll from each pollster in the last 30 days (7 polls). White ticks show the 2022 result.
Primary vote average
Legislative Assembly voting intention
Polls in the average
Primary vote and two-party preferred (Coalition–Labor)
| Pollster | L/NP | ALP | ONP | GRN | 2PP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RedBridge/Accent 3–10 Nov · Australian Financial Review |
31 | 23 | 22 | 15 | 57–43 |
Resolve 2-7 Nov · The Age |
30 | 22 | 23 | 13 | n/a |
DemosAU/Premier National 30 Oct – 5 Nov |
33 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 56–44 |
Lighthouse/Growth Intelligence Centre 19 Oct-1 Nov · Herald Sun |
31 | 22 | 23 | 14 | n/a |
Roy Morgan 26–29 Oct |
29 | 22 | 22 | 12 | 56–44 |
Online Research Unit 14–26 Oct · Victorian Greens |
32 | 25 | 14 | 15 | 54–46 |
Newspoll 15–22 Oct · The Australian(subscription required) |
33 | 24 | 20 | 14 | 55–45 |
Primary vote trend
Each dot is a published poll; lines are the rolling pollster average. Dotted lines mark leadership changes.
The seats
Swing the pendulum
All 88 Assembly seats placed by their 2022 margin. Drag the swing to see which Labor-versus-Coalition seats change hands if every seat moves by the same amount.
At this swing
–
Swipe sideways to see every seat. Tap a dot for details.
Labor
Liberal / Coalition
Nationals
White ring = changes hands at this swing
Seats changing hands
Not on the Labor–Coalition line (14 seats)
These were Greens or independent contests in 2022, so a two-party swing does not move them. The model keeps them with their current holder.
Northcote ALP 0.2 v GRN
Pascoe Vale ALP 2.0 v GRN
Preston ALP 2.1 v GRN
Footscray ALP 4.2 v GRN
Mulgrave ALP 10.8 v IND
Richmond GRN 7.3 v ALP
Melbourne GRN 10.2 v ALP
Brunswick GRN 13.7 v ALP
Mornington LIB 0.7 v IND
Benambra LIB 0.9 v IND
Prahran LIB 1.4 v GRN
Narracan LIB 13.0 v IND
Mildura NAT 1.2 v IND
Shepparton NAT 6.8 v IND
Classic read · uniform swing
Coalition majority
The poll-average swing applied to every Labor–Coalition seat.
Coalition60
Labor25
Greens3
Blind spot: assumes One Nation preferences behave like 2022 minor-party flows and that One Nation wins no seats.
Seat-by-seat · MRP
Majority
Roy Morgan for nan, March 2026 - September 2026 · sample 7708
Coalition62
Labor40
One Nation11
Greens6
Independents0
MRP models each seat from a large national sample and demographics, so it can see One Nation wins. It is one projection, taken before the July leadership change settled.
Seats to watch
Where it will be decided
Labor seats within 3 points of the poll-average swing, plus the closest Greens and independent contests. Headlines are the latest local coverage that names the seat.
| Seat | Held by | 2022 margin | Why it matters | Latest local headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Northcote Northern Metropolitan |
Kat Theophanous | 0.2% v GRN |
Close ALP v GRN contest | No recent headline found |
Bendigo East Northern Victoria |
Jacinta Allan Former premier Jacinta Allan is leaving politics. |
10.8% v LNP |
On the tipping point Holds at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
No recent headline found |
Werribee Western Metropolitan |
John Lister Labor held it by 0.8% at the Feb 2025 by-election; the 2022 margin is used. |
10.9% v LNP |
On the tipping point Holds at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
Werribee South Could Cost Labor Wyndham TV · 9 Nov |
Clarinda South-Eastern Metropolitan |
Meng Heang Tak | 10.2% v LNP |
On the tipping point Falls at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
John Paganis launches election campaign for seat of Clarinda Neos Kosmos · 21 Oct |
Albert Park Southern Metropolitan |
Nina Taylor | 11.2% v LNP |
On the tipping point Holds at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
No recent headline found |
Mornington Eastern Victoria |
Chris Crewther | 0.7% v IND |
Close LIB v IND contest | Liberals commit $2m to Mornington to Moorooduc bike trail Mornington Peninsula News · 29 Oct |
Carrum South-Eastern Metropolitan |
Sonya Kilkenny | 9.8% v LNP |
On the tipping point Falls at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
No recent headline found |
South Barwon Western Victoria |
Darren Cheeseman Sitting MP Darren Cheeseman left Labor and sits as an independent. |
9.8% v LNP |
On the tipping point Falls at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
South Barwon voters weigh in on state election Geelong Advertiser · 11 Nov |
Benambra Northern Victoria |
Bill Tilley | 0.9% v IND |
Close LIB v IND contest | Benambra candidates to meet at Vic Hotel Corowa Free Press · 9 Nov |
Mill Park North-Eastern Metropolitan |
Lily D'Ambrosio | 11.6% v LNP |
On the tipping point Holds at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
No recent headline found |
St Albans Western Metropolitan |
Natalie Suleyman | 9.6% v LNP |
On the tipping point Falls at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
Independent to contest St Albans seat Brimbank & North West | Star Weekly · 27 Oct |
Macedon Northern Victoria |
Mary-Anne Thomas | 9.5% v LNP |
On the tipping point Falls at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
Half a million committed for Macedon schools Sunbury & Macedon Ranges | Star Weekly · 9 Nov |
Mildura Northern Victoria |
Jade Benham | 1.2% v IND |
Close NAT v IND contest | Vic election: Ali Cupper pulls out of Mildura race The Weekly Times · 6 Nov |
Wendouree Western Victoria |
Juliana Addison | 11.9% v LNP |
On the tipping point Holds at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
What is each candidate in Wendouree, Eureka and Ripon promising to deliver? The Courier | Ballarat, VIC · 7 Nov |
Prahran Southern Metropolitan |
Rachel Westaway Liberal gain at the Feb 2025 by-election (LIB 1.4% v GRN). The Greens won it by 12.0% in 2022. |
1.4% v GRN |
Close LIB v GRN contest | Prahran candidates This Week In St Kilda · 6 Nov |
Cranbourne South-Eastern Metropolitan |
Pauline Richards | 9.0% v LNP |
On the tipping point Falls at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
Candidates weigh in on Cranbourne mortgage stress Cranbourne Star News · 12 Nov |
Eltham North-Eastern Metropolitan |
Vicki Ward | 9.0% v LNP |
On the tipping point Falls at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
No recent headline found |
Tarneit Western Metropolitan |
Dylan Wight | 12.3% v LNP |
On the tipping point Holds at the 10.6-pt poll swing |
Tarneit school to receive funding Wyndham | Star Weekly · 9 Nov |
The leaders
Who voters prefer, and who they look up
Preferred premier from the latest published poll, next to each leader's share of Victorian search interest this week.
Preferred premier
RedBridge/Accent, Australian Financial Review · 3–10 Nov 2026
JW
Jess Wilson
Opposition Leader
70%search share
BC
Ben Carroll
Premier
21%search share
WP
Warren Pickering
One Nation lead candidate
8%search share
ES
Ellen Sandell
Greens leader
1%search share
Leader search interest
Victoria only, 0–100 relative to the busiest day in 90 days.
Search interest · Victoria
What Victorians are looking up
Party topic searches from Victoria only, week to 10 November 2026.
Liberal
#2
10.6/100
Labor
#3
9.9/100
Greens
#4
7.9/100
Nationals
#5
1.1/100
Rising searches in Victoria
Fastest-growing related queries over 90 days.
Labor
labor immigration reform tony burkeBreakout
labor policies+110%
greens+100%
Liberal
liberal candidate+130%
liberal candidates+100%
greens+50%
Greens
greens candidates+120%
liberal party+50%
One Nation
one nation secret harbourBreakout
one nation ai adBreakout
mike newman one nationBreakout
one nation bluey cartoonBreakout
secret harbour by electionBreakout
one nation ai videoBreakout
Spikes
Unusual days and the coverage around them.
Oct29
SMH.com.au · 29 Oct · +2 more
Oct26
ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation · 26 Oct · +2 more
Oct20
The Australia Today · 20 Oct · +2 more
Oct19
The Australian · 19 Oct · +2 more
Latest
Campaign headlines
Victorian Labor
Labor promises to expand cancer compensation for fire staff if re-elected
ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation · 12 Nov
‘They call it Argentina’: Inside Victoria’s broken state
AFR · 12 Nov
Bolt: Victorian Labor’s plea for another chance an insult
Herald Sun · 12 Nov
PBO costings show Wilson’s hiring freeze billions short of 2032-33 Victoria surplus goal
The Australian · 12 Nov
Victorian Liberals
Tony Abbott sent to campaign in Liberals’ Toorak heartland
AFR · 12 Nov
Seven budget questions Jess Wilson hasn’t fully answered
AFR · 12 Nov
PBO costings show Wilson’s hiring freeze billions short of 2032-33 Victoria surplus goal
The Australian · 12 Nov
Libs’ $22bn savings pledge torpedoed by brutal costings bombshell
Herald Sun · 12 Nov
The Nationals
Danny O'Brien
Racing.com · 6 Nov
Victorian Nationals MP says attack on Dr Haines 'beggars belief'
ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation · 19 Oct
Trainer Profile | Danny O'Brien | 11562 | Overview
Racing.com · 8 Oct
Trainer Danny O’Brien selling elite facility behind Melbourne Cup win
Real Estate · 24 Jul
Victorian Greens
Victorian Labor’s ‘unforgivable’ preferences decision risks Liberal-One Nation government, Greens warn
The Guardian · 11 Nov
Victorian Greens Leader Ellen Sandell Issues Statement
Mirage News · 11 Nov
Victorian Greens to make major concerts and sporting events affordable with $50 tickets
The National Tribune · 11 Nov
Victorian election campaign enters ‘China-maxxing era’
AFR · 8 Nov
One Nation
One Nation candidates say they are funding their own Victorian election campaigns as party keeps purse shut
The Guardian · 12 Nov
Victorian Coalition position strengthens, Labor reduced to rump in new poll
AFR · 11 Nov
‘Make crime illegal again’: Warren Pickering outlines his plan to ‘rectify’ Victorian crime scourge
News24 · 11 Nov
One Nation Victoria candidate apologises for slew of offensive comments about lesbians, Indians and Julia Gillard
The Guardian · 11 Nov
How to read this page
Polls come from the public record collated on Wikipedia (snapshot 12 November 2026), each linked there to the original report. Seat margins are the 2022 two-candidate-preferred results from the published pre-election pendulum, with Prahran shown as a Liberal seat after the 2025 by-election. The uniform-swing model is the classic back-of-envelope read, not a forecast: real swings vary seat to seat, sitting members matter, and One Nation on 20.7% makes 2022 preference flows a weak guide. Search interest measures attention, not voting intention. Full method.